There’s white de-icer tracks on the landing carpet. The temperature’s dropping and everybody’s got one of those ice-scrapey-dohickeys in their back seat pocket. The streets exist in a limbo of half christmas decor and half any other indistinguishable winter month decor. It’s finally January. And that means two things in the film and cinema world: the time to push out the features studios don’t have faith in to turn a profit, hence why we get such shining examples of cinematic art like The Bye Bye Man and Monster Trucks in the middle of a month nobody cares about, and the time to push out features just slathered in everything the Academy eats up in an effort to snag one of the fabled Oscars. Yes, it’s awards season. I mean there’s the Golden Globes too, but that’s just the training wheels for the big-guy-holding-a-sword-I-think-himself, The Oscar. And because it’s Oscar season, it’s time for the best part: placing bets on what’s gonna win for money or otherwise and then laughing in your friends faces when you were right. So here we are! Break out the fancy snack trays and pop those bottles of Rosé (or as this school and the local law enforcement would prefer, Welch’s Sparkling White Grape Juice Cocktail) because here are my carefully chosen predictions for the stuff people actually care about, made through careful analysis and also me grasping at straws because none of the nominations are out yet.

Best Actor In A Leading Role

Who Do I Think Is Getting Nominated?

• James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
• Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
• Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
• Tom Hanks (The Post)
• Fionn Whitehead (Dunkirk)

Who Do I Think Will Win?

• James Franco

This is a big one. The cream of the crop for any actor invited to the show. So why, do you ask, Would I predict that James Franco would pull such an honor for literally, actually just doing a really good Tommy Wiseau impression? Simple. He’s done it before. Nobody went to the Golden Globes expecting James Franco, headliner star of a comedy expressly written and targeted for the very specific niche market of The Room fans, to actually win best actor. But yet here we are, and people should be fearful of his Jame Franco-y power. I know Hugh Jackman was. I mean, just look at his face when it really absorbs that James Franco doing a goofy indistinct accent won out to him in his grand flashy circus musical (pictured below in all its meme-able glory). If The Disaster Artist could pull the rug out from under dramatic actors in a damn war film (something award shows usually eat up) then it should be reevaluated as a dangerous contender for everybody else. So yeah. Maybe I do genuinely think James Franco could win.

Best Actor In A Supporting Role

Who Do I Think Is Getting Nominated?

• Harry Styles (Dunkirk)
• Richard Jenkins (The Shape Of Water)
• Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
• Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)
• Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Who Do I Think Will Win?

• Richard Jenkins

It’s hard predicting the Supporting Oscars, in part because, well, there tends to be a lot of supporting options. Many of the films nominated for awards have a lot of supporting roles, which makes it difficult to pick who in a cast lineup could be nominated, as only one can make it. However, Richard Jenkins is not only a more prominently-featured supporting actor, he’s also in one of the films predicted to gobble up the most awards this year. Thus, it isn’t rocket science to estimate that he has a pretty high chance of cinching this one easily.

Best Actress In A Supporting Role

Who Do I Think Is Getting Nominated?

• Octavia Spencer (The Shape Of Water)
• Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
• Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
• Dafne Keen (Logan)
• Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Who Do I Think Will Win?

TIE: Laurie Metcalf OR Octavia Spencer

Surprisingly, it’s a rough call for Supporting Actress, something that’s usually a clear shot every year. This is because, obviously, Shape Of Water is predicted to pull a lot of awards. However, nearly every predictor so far has called either Octavia or Laurie as supporting actress, usually with Laurie in the lead as Lady Bird is also a more critically-favored film up on the block this year. As it stands now, both have roughly equal odds, although if I had to pick I would say Octavia Spencer (to avoid sounding redundant, just assume for the same reasons I’ll state later about anything Shape Of Water related), and it helps she was already nominated last year for Hidden Figures.  

Best Actress In A Leading Role

Who Do I Think Is Getting Nominated?

• Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
• Sally Hawkins (The Shape Of Water)
• Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
• Meryl Streep (The Post)
• Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)

Who Do I Think Will Win?

• Sally Hawkins

If there’s one thing The Shape Of Water has proven itself to be, it’s dangerously powerful awards show fodder. Like sharks to blood in the water, critics have flocked to fawn over the Guillermo del Toro directed semi-aquatic Cold War fairy tale (never thought I’d have to type that series of words in that sequence ever but here we are I guess) and this puts its female, non-fish-suited star at a major advantage. Even the prospect of having to watch Sally Hawkins get it on with a fish guy not once but twice doesn’t seem to deter the people in the Academy who matter. Hollywood also seems to be on a lighter, more wistful trend when it comes to picking its Best Actresses after Emma Stone’s win for La La Land back in 2017 (her win came over three dramatic films, something the academy usually prefers over musicals and comedies in most regards). As such, Sally Hawkins is a force to be reckoned with and I can’t really see anybody else walking away with the award.

Best Director

Who Do I Think Is Getting Nominated?

• Guillermo del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
• Steven Spielberg (The Post)
• Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
• Jordan Peele (Get Out)
• Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)

Who Do I Think Will Win?

• TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Man. Man oh man, is this a tricky year for Best Director. Part of the reason it’s too close to call is because there’s just too many factors that could influence the final decision this year. Firstly, as stated, The Shape Of Water is stylistic and a big draw. However, Guillermo’s only won Oscars 2 times before, both of them in the less prominent categories of Best Foreign Language Film and Best Original Screenplay. However, The Post holds merit in that, well, it’s Steven Spielberg, and his name carries weight and credit both inside and out of the Academy. Dunkirk holds the power of both being from a well-known director and also being the oh-so-beloved-by-award-shows period-piece war film, so it’s a double whammy. Jordan Peele’s Get Out was not only critically loved but is also extremely relevant in our much more turmoiled country state right now, giving it a running start for the title. Lastly, Greta Gerwig is the rare female director, coming at a troubled time inside Hollywood after the shake-up of the #MeToo movement began to bring more sexual harassment scandals to light. After a long period of vulnerability and silence, women are becoming more powerful and independent within the filmmaking world. One can not deny that this gives Gerwig a certain appeal in the director category. Overall, there’s just too many directors (and too many directing factors) for a prediction to even be made right now.

Best Picture

What Do I Think Is Getting Nominated?

• Dunkirk

• The Shape Of Water

• The Post

• Lady Bird

• Get Out

What Do I Think Will Win?

• The Shape Of Water

This, again, is a tough race. There’s a lot of contenders and a lot of factors this year, again mostly amounting to the reasons I stated above. However when it comes down to brass tacks, Shape Of Water has a passionate crowd gunning for it, one that I believe just might be strong enough to be out my other choice, Get Out. Both have a following, but with Shape Of Water’s widespread success at the Golden Globes it’s clear to me that we may very well have a new La La Land on our hands this year with Shape Of Water during the Oscars. Others may try, but with the events of this year and last year I feel most critics and general audiences are weary of washed-out unsaturated dull grey drama films, war films especially in such a heightened state here in the US, hence why I don’t feel Dunkirk or others will make it. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if, like the Emma Stone-headed Hollywood musical, Shape snatches up more than an armful of awards in multiple categories, and potentially even this one. However, unlike La La Land, I would be surprised if Shape Of Water was somehow the victim of a repeat of last year’s infamous screw up wherein La La Land was not actually best picture. Unless, of course, the Academy is dumb enough to try to pull that stunt again for ratings.

Best Animated Feature

What Do I Think Is Getting Nominated?

• Boss Baby (Dreamworks)
• Coco (Disney/Pixar)
• Loving Vincent (BreakThru)
• The Breadwinner (Cartoon Saloon)
• The Lego Batman Movie (Warner Brothers)

What Do I Think Will Win?

• Coco

Man…. it sure was… a year, for animation. We had such feats of high art as… Captain Underpants, The Emoji Movie, and a film where you can witness the majesty and prestige of watching Alec Baldwin voicing a baby with its ass out. Yeah. It’s been pretty bad. It’s thin pickings for Oscar-worthy animated content right now, hence why we have Boss Baby and Lego Batman in there to serve as filler-spots. And it’s because it’s been pretty bad that the opportunity is ripe for Disney to swoop in and secure another Oscar. As an apex predator can detect the smallest sign of weakness in its prey, so can Disney clearly see that it has the competition beat out easily. But, you may ask, how can Disney’s relatively generic 3D film compete with the hand-drawn Breadwinner or the completely traditionally-oil-painted animation of Loving Vincent? Simple. They nearly always win, because they have the power of brand recognition on their side. In the 16 years the Best Animated Feature category has been run, Disney has won the Oscar 11 times. That’s roughly 70% of the time for a category that hasn’t even been around two decades. To place your money on anything other than Coco would be potentially the dumbest move you could make. It’s honestly a little annoying, actually, that Disney keeps snatching it up every time, but that’s life. They’re a household name and beloved by nearly all deep down in their souls, except for my embittered, venom-soaked heart that’s getting a little sick of Disney’s potential 5-year-winning-streak now, and it’s thanks to their reputation that the Academy keeps feeding their ego. However, we all have our little victories, and mine is that, no matter how hard they try, Disney can’t reverse the fact that the first ever Best Animated Feature award, in 2001, went to Shrek.

And that’s all I got folks! There’s more categories, sure, but I’m not about to sit around all day analyzing charts to figure out whatever the hell is gonna win Best Makeup and Hairstyling when the butt-monkey-of-2016-itself Suicide Squad won out over Star Trek Beyond. So do with this information what you wish. If you’re into the Oscars, go enjoy yourself some Shape Of Water this weekend and get that bet money ready for March. If you’re more into the regular-”dump month”-fare January offers, go sit down and watch…. Maze Runner 3, I guess, and have fun watching that kid from Love Actually that seemingly never ages drive a jeep around in some sand for an hour and a half. There’s no shame in either. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to go stare at the moon and wonder if there’s any real direction in life after knowing that The Boss Baby is probably getting nominated for an Oscar, and that I will have to see “the Oscar-nominated classic” plastered on Boss Baby blu-rays in Target for years to come.